Let us start from the premise that markets reflect the stupidity and ignorance of most investors, who fail to notice things until they are hit over the head with them. So where do we stand on sovereign debt default and its potential impact on the world economy? Everyone talks about the damage done to the [...]
The short answer is Almost Always Not. But both the question and the answer need a little explanation. There is always pressure for quantified answers. CEOs, Generals, Politicians do not want to know that something might get worse. They want to know how much worse. Detail is always convincing. “We have created many jobs” is [...]
The interim report of the Independent Commission on Banking (ICB) came out yesterday. It is a substantial document with around 200 pages of A4 text: I have read about a quarter of it so far. It is intended to give preliminary conclusions in order to stimulate further comment. The closing date is 4 July 2011 [...]
Lazy journalists, and maybe hopeful bankers, seem to think that the pressure for bank reform is over. Politicians rushed through a few minor extra taxes and things will now go on as before. That is a mistake. Anyone reading the transcript of Mervyn King’s oral evidence to the Treasury Select Committee on 1 March 2011 [...]
City A.M. is a surprisingly good free daily newspaper distributed in the City and at Canary Wharf (where I sometimes pick it up). There was an excellent article on Thursday by Allister Heath about the causes of the banking crash. His causes were: 1. central banks keeping interest rates too low in order to avoid [...]
