Skip to content

Highway robbery

I have just been watching again the excellent 60 minute programme. “The Super-Rich: The Greed Game”, shown on BBC4 on 7 October 2008. Unfortunately it is no longer available on the BBC website, but I strongly recommend watching it if it comes up again:

Robert Peston: More than 50 billionaires call Britain home. Not since the nineteenth century have there been such opportunities for so many to make quite so much money. At least 30,000 Brits now earn more than £0.5 million/year. In 2006, four thousand two hundred City executives took a bonus of £1 million or more. And among hedge funds alone, 150 people hve been earning more than £20 million a year.

Dr Philip Beresford (compiler of Sunday Times Rich List): The only other period we have seen similar accumulation was during the industrial revolution in the Victorian Age, when the whole raft of Victorian industrialists made massive fortunes quickly. But even that was over a period of forty or fifty years. This has been in the last ten years.

Many of my father’s generation were fellow-travellers. The idea of “from each according to his abilities to each according to his needs” seemed the perfect philosophy for the Humanist Age. Of course, those who did their homework were less tempted because Marxism was fairly explicit about the end justifying the means, and there was a natural caution about those prepared to use such apparently grubby means. Nonetheless, I think everyone was taken aback when the full failure of the Soviet economy was laid bare for all to see after the collapse of communism.

Certainly, I was deeply shocked by a visit to Irkutz, a modest-sized town on the shores of Lake Baikal, in the 1990s. It was best described as Third World with education. So it is clear that exhortations do not work. A market economy is needed to enrich the masses, or even to get them comfortably above subsistence level.

But it is not so clear that the markets should be entirely unrestrained. It is almost obvious, and certainly generally accepted, that the Rule of Law is needed. The state has to intervene to prevent fraud. It is also clear that it has to provide various common services such as infrastructure and defence, and to provide at least a modest safety-net in the form of social services. That requires taxation.

The argument used to be about how much tax rates should rise with income. Should income above £100,000 be taxed at 50 per cent, or at 80 per cent. Bizarrely, the former socialist party, New Labour, decided to tax most of the Super-Rich at around 10 per cent on income, substantially less than those on more modest incomes. There has always been a problem with tax avoidance and tax evasion by the rich. If you have an income of a million a year, you can easily afford to pay substantial legal fees for complex schemes which avoid tax. You can also afford to devise complex illegal schemes which are hard to uncover. But New Labour chose to make all that unnecessary. They made it easy for the richest members of society to pay little tax.

ronaldcohen.jpg

Ronald Cohen became a New Labour favourite, and an effective advocate for the Super-Rich. Listen to his justification from the same TV programme:

The reason private equity charge what are considered to be high levels of fees is that there are relatively few people in the private equity world, and there are relatively few new entrants into that world. It is quite a rare combination of skills, and the financial results that the industry is able to deliver to its investors means that the investors are continuing to pay those fees.

Now private equity is quite a different case from hedge funds. The fundamental market imperfection here is the inadequate control and guidance provided by non-executive directors and shareholders on the activities of executive directors in quoted companies. One consequence of this lack of control is that executives are typically reluctant to allow much debt, because debt tends to make the company’s quarterly results more volatile and hence the executives’ job of managing the company and explaining its results to shareholders more difficult. So there is an opportunity to acquire businesses on a highly-leveraged basis and then to resell a few years later when some of the debt has been paid down.

Clearly this process is not in shareholders’ interests. They would be much better served if the same restructuring and managing whilst they still owned the shares. However, it is strongly in the interests of the top management, because they have a de facto monopoly on the detailed information needed to plan the deal and hence can cut themselves highly attractive deals, often involving a substantial share in the huge gains. So in practice shareholders are usually faced with a modest gain from selling to the private equity company or no gain at all, and hence often go along with the scheme.

It can be argued that this is of net benefit to the economy, but it is clearly absurd to claim that the only way this benefit can be delivered is by enriching a few individuals beyond the dreams of avarice.

The case of hedge funds is even worse. They are just playing a zero-sum game - gambling on the world’s markets. They are better at it than the employees of the typical bank, insurance company or pension fund, so they make money at the expense of the masses. There is arguably a modest benefit from the increase in liquidity which they bring to the world’s markets - they account, for example, for a substantial proportion of turnover on the New York Stock Exchange - but that is completely insignificant compared to the riches they have piled up for a few individuals.

The world is simply mad to allow this kind of legalized highway robbery. The sooner the politicians grasp that and outlaw it the better.

Hard cases

Few people can name more than three cabinet ministers (with titles). Many educated people can name the Foreign Secretary and the Home Secretary as well as the Prime Minister, but most find it much harder after that. Indeed quite a few people get muddled between the Justice Secretary and the Home Secretary. Almost no one can name the entire cabinet, let alone many junior ministers.

harman.jpg

Harriet Harman appeared on the Channel 4 News last night subtitled as “Minister for Women”. That title was relevant to the subject she was talking about, but it is hardly her main title. She is in fact in the cabinet, as Leader of the House and Lord Privy Seal. But as “Minister for Women and Equality” she heads the “Government Equalities Office”, a bizarre government department that almost no one has heard of. It camps out in a spare corner of Eland House near Victoria Station, which is now mainly occupied by the Department for Communities and Local Government. It is unclear to me what it does, but it proudly proclaims that it

is determined to be transparent in accounting for its performance. This is particularly important in our action to address discrimination and promote equality. The GEO will shortly be consulting on its first single equality scheme, as set out in our Business Plan. In the interim, we set out below the provisional breakdown of our staff according to gender and ethnic origin. These figures will be updated on a regular basis.

- 88 staff work in the GEO of which 56% are women and 44% men.
- There are 6 senior civil servants in our senior management team, 4 women and 2 men.
- The Gender Pay Gap is currently estimated at minus 4%, that is the median pay of women in GEO is higher than the median pay of men.
- 12% of GEO staff are from a Black, Asian or minority ethnicity.

Harriet Harmon is a survivor. She used to be thought of as a Blairite. She has represented Peckham for over 25 years. In 1995 pro-Labour parts of the former Dulwich constituency were added, making it even safer. It is “a study in south London urban decay … three-fifths in ageing, crime-ridden, poverty-afflicted council housing, a third of the voters are black, two-fifths from Africa”. She has a solidly middle-class background (father a doctor, educated at St Paul’s Girls’ School and York University). Having qualified as a solicitor, she became legal officer for the National Council for Civil Liberties for four years and worked in Brent Law Centre.

In 1995 solicitors were allowed to become QCs. In a reshuffle she was appointed Solicitor General in June 2001 and held the post until 2005. She was appointed a QC in 2001. I assume the appointment was a kind of honorary appointment to reflect her appointment as Solicitor General, but I have not been able to pin that down. Certainly she has no particular distinction as a legal advocate.

I mention all this because I realized as I watched the Channel 4 interview that she is one of the people behind Jacqui Smith’s latest daft initiative. Harriet Harman explained how as Solicitor General, she had seen many case files about trafficked women working as prostitutes. The women reported that they had repeatedly told clients that they were being kept against their will and wanted help, but the men had just ignored their pleas.

The men concerned no doubt felt that if they got involved, they would end up being seriously embarrassed when their wives and friends discovered that they had been visiting a prostitute. Such a refusal to help people in deep distress is disgraceful. But it is not remotely unique to this kind of crime. Many witnesses refuse to help the police for a wide variety of reasons, of which fear, embarrassment, and a reluctance to spend time on something that does not benefit them directly, are probably the most common.

The Solicitor General deputizes for the Attorney General, who has supervisory powers of prosecutions and is often consulted by the Crown Prosecution Service about particular prosecutions. Presumably many of the men who had appeared in the files Harriet Harman had read, had denied being told anything by the prostitutes and had denied seeing any evidence that they were effectively being kept as slaves. She no doubt assumed, probably correctly, that if they had been prosecuted for having sex with a woman who was being forced to act as a prostitute, they would have denied knowing anything which could have made them suspect that she was not acting of her own free will. She no doubt knew enough law to see that this would make prosecutions for a proposed new offence of sex with a trafficked prostitute extremely difficult. She therefore wanted it to be a strict liability offence, where the prosecution did not need to prove (beyond reasonable doubt) that the man knew the prostitute was under duress.

But hard cases make bad law. Strict liability offences are almost always bad. It is perhaps acceptable for minor offences, which are not usually classified as criminal, like speeding. But it is clearly unacceptable for substantial criminal offences. Anyone convicted of sex with a trafficked woman would clearly face a substantial stigma. But they might have acted entirely innocently. If prosecutions were brought in any numbers, it is certain that substantial numbers of innocent men would be convicted. Trying to right one injustice with another is bad law.

It is also deceptive. Few voters understand what a strict liability offence is. Most people would probably support a new offence to help stamp out trafficking, not realizing what was really involved. Only later would the problems become clear enough for the law to be changed.

Of course, there is a case for banning prostitution outright. That at least would be honest. It would also be bad law, but for a quite different reason. There is a long history, starting with Prohibition, which shows clearly that it is a mistake to outlaw behaviour which is widely condoned and which has strong support amongst a minority.

[Incidentally, the quotes about Harriet Harman’s constituency come from the political nerds’ bible: Parliamentary Profiles (several vols) by Andrew Roth and Byron Griddle. It covers all MPs. Or rather, it sort of did. The snag is that MPs keep changing and there is not enough demand for the books to bring them out annually. The E-K volume (ISBN 0900582456) is now nearly 10 years old. With the increasing ease of internet research, I suspect they will wither away, which is a pity.]

Jacqui Smith (again)

The ineffable Jacqui Smith was interviewed on the Today programme this morning. The report (.pdf available on the Home Office website) has as its main recommendation the creation of a

specific strict liability offence of paying for sex with someone who is controlled for another person’s gain, in order to protect vulnerable individuals, for example those who have been trafficked or exploited by any other means.

Anyone familiar with New Labour might wake up at the “for example”. Is some draconian new offence to be introduced with much hoopla about action against trafficking, when actually it will be drafted much more widely, and not really aimed at trafficking at all? There is the unfortunate precedent of the “living off immoral earnings” prosecutions which interpret the offence so widely that a landlord cannot safely let a flat to a prostitute.

Before Jacqui Smith came on, we heard an unenthusiastic Niki Adams, a spokeswoman for the English Collective of Prostitutes, making just this point. She thought it could be used to cover the common case where the prostitute had a geunuine boyfriend who derived some benefit from her earnings. She also thought that Home Office suggestions that 80% of prostitutes had been trafficked were just plucked out of the air. She thought the proportion was small. But there was no good data.

As expected, Jacqui Smith started with the evils of trafficking:

We are very clear that what we are making an offence is paying for sex with someone who has been exploited, who has been trafficked, who is actually involved in prostitution against their will … When we talk to the public about their views on this, there really isn’t strong support at the moment for a total ban on paying for sex, and we wanted to focus on where there clearly is exploitation, where women are not making a free choice

But she claims that Nick Adams is wrong. The offence will be narrowly defined. Unfortunately, time did not permit any discussion of that, so we will find out later. The interviewer focussed on the strict liability aspect:

A man who makes a reasonable effort to find out if a prostitute is trafficked or not is prosecuted because he was wrong, he got the wrong conclusion, and she was trafficked, and he thought she wasn’t. And is that your proposal? And is that fair?

JS: It is my proposal that men should actually think twice about paying for sex. The reason that they should do that is because actually the majority of women don’t want to be involved in prostitution …

So the unfairness is justified by the fact that the majority of women are, according to Jacqui Smith, in prostitution against their will. The interviewer is not happy:

… But I have given you a specific case that seems unfair. He makes a reasonable effort to ascertain if the prostitute is trafficked. Perhaps he asks her, she tells him she isn’t trafficked. It turns out she is trafficked, and then he is arrested for having procured the services of someone who controlled for someone else’s gain. Now is that the intention of the law, because it doesn’t seem terribly fair?

JS: Yes it is the intention of the law. I will tell you what I think is more unfair. That is that there are women in this country who are effectively held in slavery …

Interviewer: That is a different unfairness! It is not up to the client of the prostitute, who is making his best effort not to support the trafficking trade, to do the job of the police in .. out and uncovering trafficked prostitutes in this country.

JS: You understand that there wouldn’t be exploitation, there wouldn’t be this supply of women controlled in the way in which they are if there wasn’t a demand for prostitution. … Frankly, trafficked women don’t have a choice, men do.

So we have a proposal for a fundamentally dishonest piece of legislation. Jacqui Smith recognizes that she does not have public support for a ban on prostitution. But she proposes to deter men from using prostitutes by prosecuting them anyway for a different strict liability offence which they can only be sure of avoiding by avoiding prostitution altogether. She hopes that the public won’t spot what is going on because she will keep on talking about the evils of trafficking.

Just to be clear, trafficking is clearly an exceptionally evil crime. I have read two books on it over the years. The last one had a particularly unedifying account of the UN troops who were supposed to stop it (as one of their responsibilities in former Yugoslavia) accepting sexual favours from the trafficked women instead. There were also appalling accounts of girls being repeatedly raped at staging posts along their journey to get them used to their new job.

It would certainly be good if more users of prostitutes were alert to the possibility that the girl might be held against her will, and were willing to tip off the police. But prosecuting the users as a strict liability offence is a rather vicious way of prosecuting a random group of men for using prostitutes. Vicious because the trafficking stigma is likely to attach to them.

Speeding (2)

jimfitzpatrick.jpg

One of the curiosities of this subject is that the evidence that speed kills is much flimsier than you might expect. Government ministers sometimes say that the link is well-established, but rarely spell out evidence for it. For example, the road safety minister Jim Fitzpatrick in a speech last month simply said:

Tackling the problem of speeding will remain a key priority. Indeed, one of the biggest challenges of the next decade will be to make speeding as unacceptable to mainstream society, as drink-driving has become.

Although there are still far too many drivers who regularly break speed limits, we are slowly winning the battle against speed. That process must continue, backed by speed cameras where they are effective, by a police force focused on successful enforcement, and by THINK! advertising emphasising the message that speeding is not only dangerous, but also unacceptable.

The obvious place to look is the Transport Research Laboratory (free registration required to download reports, most .pdfs are free), but after browsing back through the last 30 years’ reports I could not find one specifically on the evidence that speed kills. There were some which mentioned it in passing, for example TRL296, published in 1998, included:

In 1987, 40 American states raised speed limits on rural interstate highways from 55 mph to 65 mph … Controlling for a wide variety of factors known to affect speed and accident data (such as vehicle miles travelled, seat belt laws, seasonal effects, long- term trends and economic conditions), several studies concluded that the increase in average speed of between 5 mph and 10 mph on those roads was the direct cause of the increase in accidents of between 19 and 30% … Earlier, in 1979, Denmark reduced its non-urban speed limits by 10 kph, which produced an overall reduction in average speed of around 2 kph and an 18% cut in rural injury accidents …

Yet the matter of speed-accident links is not actually as straightforward as this, and a range of other variables and facts complicate the picture. For instance, although absolute speeds on motorways are considerably higher than on other roads, accidents are least likely to occur there. Although some correlation has been found between individuals’ reports of their habitual speeds and their accident involvement, it is also the case that many faster- than-average drivers have avoided accidents altogether or have a lower than expected accident rate even when their mileage is taken into account. For some drivers, slower speeds seem to induce lower levels of attention and concentration and higher speeds (and speeding convictions) are associated with higher alertness and arousal. Lower speed limits may increase drivers’ perceptions of safety and corresponding risk of accident, through creating a false sense of security. Further, as traffic police officers often told us in this present study, it is not necessarily the case that fast speeds per se are dangerous. It is inappropriate speed for the circumstances that is risky. Thus very low as well as very high speeds on a dual carriageway or motorway can lead to accidents if they increase the speed variance on the road.

Moreover, re-analysis of US data on fatal accidents occurring after the raise in speed limits on rural interstates suggests it is incorrect to say that the change led directly to an increase. … when the statewide fatality rate was used as the dependent variable instead of the rural interstate fatality rate, there was an decline in state-by-state fatality rates of between 3.4 and 5.1%.

Hardly the ringing endorsement of lower speeds that politicians are fond of claiming.

There is one rather key distinction. Consider the following two propositions:

(A) drivers driving significantly faster than the average speed of drivers on a particular road are more likely to be involved in accidents;

(B) reducing average speeds (by a combination of enforcement action and lower limits) will save lives.

There has been substantial evidence for (A) for many decades. But the evidence also shows that driving significantly slower than the average also increases the risk of accidents. In other words, accidents are lowest when all vehicles are moving at roughly the same speed. It took quite a while for this to be generally accepted - people claimed, for example, that the slow speed effect was not real, but was due to accidents near junctions where traffic was slowing down to exit, or speeding up after entering. That turned out to false. There was still a substantial effect after eliminating that element. So slow driving is just as bad as fast driving. But attempts to use minimum speed limits have not been particularly successful, and it has proved much harder to whip up public feeling against slow drivers.

The evidence for (B) is trickier. Certainly, high-speed accidents tend to be worse than slow-speed accidents, so a higher proportion of high-speed accidents involve deaths than slow-speed accidents. But apart from that, the evidence in favour of lower speeds is not as strong as you might expect.

Speeding

hoon.jpg

Geoff Hoon claims he is the UK motorist’s friend. He is trying to persuade them to welcome the replacement of Gatsos with average speed cameras on the basis that they are fairer.

gatso.jpg

A large majority of male motorists believe that their driving skills are way above average and so they can drive safely at speeds way over the limit. Indeed most think that speed cameras are an iniquitous form of stealth tax, and that every man has a right, indeed a duty, to thwart them. Everyone quickly got to know the location of cameras on their regular routes and would slow down for the necessary fifty yards after the camera - Gatso cameras use visible flashes which were thought to be a driving hazard if pointed at oncoming cars, so they catch you as you leave them, not as you approach them, and over 90% of the 5,000 cameras in the UK are of this type.

But it still used to be harder to spot cameras on unfamiliar routes. Cunning officials would conceal them behind traffic signs or trees. So any man who took his duty seriously had to invest in a radar detector, or later GPS mapping, which was constantly updated with camera positions. Less serious avoiders simply slammed on the brakes whenever they noticed a camera.

This worked better than one might have expected because the typical camera was out of action for 90% of the time. Once the film ran out, it had to be resupplied, but the police and local authorities tended not to see this as a priority because they did not share in the revenues.

This was the reasoning behind the apparently bizarre decision to stop concealing the cameras and to highlight them with yellow fluorescent paint. It was felt that the increased deterrent effect of a highly visible camera outweighed the reduction in prosecutions.

truvelo.jpg

Significant numbers of Truvelos cameras have been introduced in some areas. These use an infra-red flash, which does not distract drivers, so they catch you as you are approaching them. But the main reason seems to have been that they take a photograph which can be used to identify the driver, thus dealing more easily with disputed cases. They are still easy to spot, and so for a while the only problem has been failing to pay attention, or the odd occasion when the police use some unfair gadget like a laser gun which the cheap detectors fail to pick up.

All that could be about to change. The authorities have been carrying out trials of number plate recognition technology and it seems to have been finally pronounced fit for large-scale deployment. Slowing down temporarily doesn’t help, because the technology can average your speed between any two cameras. If two cameras 40 miles apart pick you up at a thirty minute interval, then you are ticketed.

avspeed.jpg

It remains to be seen how this works out in practice. Except at night it is hard to maintain average speeds above the limit for long distances, so the threat is probably only from cameras that are a relatively short distance apart. If they come in pairs, then it may just mean that you can easily avoid detection by slowing down between them, without any need to slam on the brakes. The most significant point from a speeding point of view may be that there is no film, so no down-time when it runs out. This could have a big enough effect to increase substantially the use of gps gadgets (which are the only type to give effective warning). On the other hand, it could mean that it becomes impossible to drive above 75 mph for any substantial distance on motorways. We will see.

Given the current absurd preoccupation with terrorism, it seems likely that at least part of the impetus behind the move to number plate readers is to enhance the ability of the police and intelligence agencies to track people real-time. I have written on some aspects of this already, so for now I would just repeat the obvious that the dangers of giving barely accountable agencies access to ever more data about our private lives far exceed the benefits. There are two main dangers. One is that we are building up the apparatus for a fascist state for some future clique to seize control. The other is more immediate. We are guaranteeing the abuse of this data. The mistake which all the politicians seem to make is to think that none of the vast number of people with legitimate access to the data will abuse it. All experience shows that a small percentage will abuse it. In particular, some will simply sell it to those prepared to pay.

At the moment the government seems to be having endless difficulty preventing the accidental abuse of information. There has been a continual flow of people with oceans of highly confidential data leaving it unprotected on trains. But that is fixable. Deliberate abuse is not.